March 21Wow! what a days turmoil Rosehill could produce today as some of the races will not be as easy to the favourites as seems per the prepost odds due to the added issue of forecast rain.Race 5: Canterbury Stakes$4.50 El Cambio: just beat Grp 1 winner Swick at Flem$5.00 All Silent: enormous win in Emirates: Doncaster chance:suited wfa$5.50 Triple Honour: loves it wet$6.00 Northern Meteor: dry tracker: beat Fist Of Fury Group 1 Fem: FOF not wfa horse$9.00 Forensics: acid test today but oozes
March 21
Wow! what a days turmoil Rosehill could produce today as some of the races will not be as easy to the favourites as seems per the prepost odds due to the added issue of forecast rain.
Race 5: Canterbury Stakes
$4.50 El Cambio: just beat Grp 1 winner Swick at Flem
$5.00 All Silent: enormous win in Emirates: Doncaster chance:suited wfa
$5.50 Triple Honour: loves it wet
$6.00 Northern Meteor: dry tracker: beat Fist Of Fury Group 1 Fem: FOF not wfa horse
$9.00 Forensics: acid test today but oozes class
Now the rain is a factor Northern Meteor must be taken on as a punter as my ABC selections are all proven Group performers under wet conditions. Forensics also has Dead track form but his wins over Sliding Cube and Warhead do not match the same class as my first three selections but at least she has more than NMeteor. I will lay Northern Meteor and going on pre post prices will be backing El Cambio and All Silent.
Race 6: Ranvet Stakes
$3.50 Theseo: will lead but may not be able to skip away as easily in wet
$4.50 Zagreb: huge run in Aus Cup
$5.00 Viewed: been running on beautifully recently
$8.00 Vision and Power: won 4 races on heavy tracks: top run to Tuesday Joy
I have had my doubts about Theseo at 2000m in the top level. If Niconero had not been stopped in his tracks at 100m mark in Aus Cup he would have won by 0.75 len thus Theso's short half head 2nd is flattering and just beating handicapper Barbaricus in the McKinnon was not all that flash either. Just the same he has to go on top as he will lead uncontested and that might be enough. At the odds I will be laying Theseo and backing Zagreb and Viewed.
Race 7: Coolmore Classic
$6.00 Gallant Tess: been very honest at wfa against males: drop in class here
$7.00 Culminate: Group NZ mare with Ollie aboard: loves it damp
$9.00 Judged: not in all that well at wts compared to GTess but El Cambio effort great
$11.00 Portillo: likes it damp and beat tough little Romneya fair and square
I have taken on Typhoon Tracy (horror draw,again and wet track plus interstate) and Gold Water (9th run in today, tough run last start). I must admit I like my AB selections (well, so I should) but anything rough would not surprise. Dangerous race especially if rain affects inside of track because they will be scouting wide. Culminates 33/1 pre post!!
Race 8: Phar Lap Stakes
$4.50 Heart Of Dreams: softish win in Aus Guineas, more improvement expected
$4.75 Whobegotyou: hard 1st up run straght into damp track will test
$5.00 Duporth: should have run 4th in Newmarket next to Grp 1 Swick
$6.00 Von Costa Hero: dampness helps: much maligned but honest trier
I am taking on Whobegotyou as I though his run was a hard 1st up effort and may have flattened him (supposition) plus 1st Sydney run and 2nd up last campaign although a fraction unlucky was still btn 2.5L. If he wins this get on in the Doncaster and perhaps the Geo Ryder on the way. Duporth beat Von Costa Hero home in the heavy going in the Champagne Stakes: he was most unlucky in the Newmarket at the 200m mark and rocketed when clear. Von Costa has many convictions but still produces good runs and one day the tide will turn.
Race 9: Big6 Star Kingdom Stakes
Burdekin Blues is going to be short and to be quite honest I just cannot line up this field against him. To win at wfa two runs ago would normally kill this field but the Flem run was ordinary even accounting for racing in the middle of the track and then being the last race one cannot be too sure of the conditions especially if rain keeps coming. I will leave this race alone as I have no firm conviction on how to treat it.
Ascot
The much awaited return of flying machine Dante;s Volonte (heading to SA after this for DSMcKay and Goodwood) and Marsco's return are the highlights of todays card.
Race 4: Jungle Hero Sprint
This race simply revolves around either taking DV on (I will if he is $1.25 or shorter) or taking him with one horse in the exacta. Firstly, DV could be vulnerable simply because Lachino (a 1000m speedster) could take him on for the lead:drawn br 1) AND Formal Attire doesn't mind a lead either but then again would you think DV's jockey would be silly enough to get into a speed duel? If the exacta combo strikes any interest get value and speck Northwater Boy for 2nd position. He will be last on the home turn but with the perceived early speed he may rocket over the top of them bar DV
Race 6: Raconteur Stakes
$3.50 Henry De Horse: just keeps winning but this is quite an open race
$5.00 Revolition:: needed first up run then improved and may well go on with it
$6.00 Ballroom Crown: 2 runs ago just beat Dane Smile who was killed by Henry Da Horse
$7.50 Rose De Lago: good run behind Revolition
Perfect race to lay Henry and Ballroom Dancer at their short pre post prices. The value looks to be Barn Burner (quoted at ridiculous 15/1 pre post) and do not forget to again back Hawkeye Mort (back to 3yo company).
Race 8: Hyperion Stakes
$4.00 Marasco: champion WA runner:difficult not to have on top
$4.75Tarzi: has 2nd to Marasco at wfa: beat K2Money recently
$5.00 Keytomoney: top Bun run
$8.00 Hadabeclorka: had to thread way through field for good 2nd Keytomoney
Two years ago Marasco would have been a shade of odds on in this field (he has won 4:6 at wfa at Ascot) but his last two campaigns have seen him win 2nd up hence we need to be wary with our assessment. Happy at 3/1 or longer. Tarzi was caught wide all way 2 runs ago and drew terribly last start and just had to go too wide upon straightening. Beat K2Money before that. Hadabeclorka just gets the nod ahead of Royal Lott simply on his good run behind Keytomoney. I am surprised to see K2M at only 6/4 pre post so naturally will be taking him on and backing Marasco(maybe) and definitely Tarzi.
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Caulfield
I will give this meeting a miss. Some good horses racing but either first up or second up and I am not prepared to take fitness chances.
Morphettville
Race 6: Schweppes Oaks
$4.75 Estee: 2nd in Wakeful behind Rocha who ran top race in Sydnet at her last run
$5.00 Gallica: distance query but knows about winning races
$6.00 Lamaar: tried hard last start but could not sprint home: distance query
$9.00 Sparks Fly: solid run in Wakeful finishing just over 2Len behind Estee
My only query with Estee is that she was beaten by the roughie Rocha in the Wakeful Stakes which possibly means she did not stay as the winner had average form at the time. Gallica is a gutsy filly but I wonder about the 2000m. Lamaar just could not sprint last run considering the fairly soft pace early and she is another on trial at the distance. Sparks Fly might well be the one at odds going on her ok run behind Rocha/Estee in the Wakeful
Race 7: Robert Sangster
$7.00 Absolut Glam ; top run in Newmarket
$8.00 Romneya: much easier than the Coolmore would have been
$9.00 Champagne Harmony: hasn't beaten anything but most promising
$11.00 Kirvinsky: huge run last start when really sprinted when clear
Just a wide open race and I want odds before I bet. Looking at the pre post prices the 50/1 St Trinians looks amazing odds for a wfa Adelaide winner. If that's the case the 50/1 Tranquility Base looks a big chance too, at the odds.. The last two first up runs of Serious Speed suggest 30/1 is a bit of overs as well. Gee, there are many chances in this race: tread warily.
Well, there we go. It's all ahead of us so all the best in what looks like a crackerjack days racing.
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