The 2010 AFL Aussie Rules season started on Thursday night and this season I am starting a many pronged, punting attack on this magnificent game. I will be the first to admit my football knowledge is fairly average however I do know about odds and in a quaint way I feel I have a gut feel for what represents value on AFL matches, most times.I barrack for Richmond and according to all the odds makers we are in for a tough year however punting wise there is more than way to skin a tiger on the punt
The 2010 AFL Aussie Rules season started on Thursday night and this season I am starting a many pronged, punting attack on this magnificent game. I will be the first to admit my football knowledge is fairly average however I do know about odds and in a quaint way I feel I have a gut feel for what represents value on AFL matches, most times.
I barrack for Richmond and according to all the odds makers we are in for a tough year however punting wise there is more than way to skin a tiger on the punt. Actually, there are many, many, many ways as evidenced when I logged onto Sportsbet to find there were 23 betting options on the ONE match at face value. What will boggle your mind is how many options there are within the 23 betting options. The simplest was the Head to Head 2.75 for Richmond and 1.47 for Carlton to possibly the hardest the Exact Winning Margin. The next easiest would be the Line where points in are given with Richmond at +14.5 pts.
My next step was to log into Betfair and I found Richmond at $3.15 and Carlton $1.44 so I started my 2010 football betting with $5 to win on Richmond. This is $0.40 better than what Sportsbet are offering hence for my $5 Sportsbet returns $13.75 while Betfair returns $15.75 less $0.54c for their 5% deduction on winnings or $15.21. Now, the extra $1.46 is not a massive amount but multiply this by x wins per year and it adds up. I like a little more action than just the one bet so I had another $5 on Richmond to win the First Quarter on Betfair at 2.38.
I have drawn up a page for each team and will apply some simple Target Betting to win $5 per bet over the course of the season. I will apply a safety break that decrees anytime I am winning 10% profit on turnover I will draw a line in the sand and start again.
Alas, the Tigers, although showing some promising moments for such a young team, were crunched in the first quarter with Carlton scoring 5 goals in the first 13 minutes and finally beaten into submission in the last quarter. There goes $10 but I saw enough to know Richmond will surprise a few of the better teams once they learn to capitalize more on their opportunities.
Just testing a few ideas.
Rosehill: all each way
Race 2 No 8 Call Me Chrissie
Race 5 No 9 Milanesa
Race 6 No 13 Brilliant Light
Race 7 No 4 Extra Zero
Caulfield: all each way
Race 3 No 3 Belleza Veloz
Race 5 No 3 Orbit Express
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