WAS THAT ME?Vigor's $26 for the Caulfield Cup collapsed late last week. I just wondered whether or not it was down to my comments here. Probably not, and probably a weenie bit immodest, but then he did look over the odds at 25/1. Now he's 16/1 ($17). He's right in to 13/1 ($14) second favourite with the TAB.That's OK by me, I'm on at the longer offer... but what caused this shift? Seriously, it can't be me, but maybe bigger bettors than I sensed that the horse was overs. It does show that if you
WAS THAT ME?
Vigor's $26 for the Caulfield Cup collapsed late last week. I just wondered whether or not it was down to my comments here. Probably not, and probably a weenie bit immodest, but then he did look over the odds at 25/1. Now he's 16/1 ($17). He's right in to 13/1 ($14) second favourite with the TAB.
That's OK by me, I'm on at the longer offer... but what caused this shift? Seriously, it can't be me, but maybe bigger bettors than I sensed that the horse was overs. It does show that if you believe there's a BIG "overs" on offer and you are right about the pricing, it won't last.
Unfortunately I've been known to be badly wrong!
More often than not, in fact.
My aim is to be right enough times with these longshots, to make for a profitable end to the story each season. To be honest it can take just one bet.
Or maybe two, if I get into the middle range.
But when I took Herculian Prince at $81 for the Melbourne Cup, I took him because I believed the odds were ridiculous. I really don't know if he can beat the interstate stayers and the imports. All I know is that he brained the local second grade stayers late last season and looked really (as they say) sensational in doing so.
Oh yeah, and that Gai Waterhouse has him.
And that she just has to win the big one soon.
To me that all translated as 80/1 being decent odds.
True, I may be wrong. Been there.
But I only have to be right occasionally.
Just for the record I didn't keep this to myself: it's in the issue of PPM that's been out for some weeks.
But again I say, I could be wrong. That's far easier than being right.
Study the markets and see what you think. If there's maybe just one horse that seems to you way above what it should be, investigate as thoroughly as you can (look at the trainer's website if there is one, for example).
A small bet along these lines isn't a foolish bet, if it carries your logic and a huge promise. It's only foolish if it's based on a wish, and not on an expectation.