Systems: A Few Thoughts.I just finished an article for an upcoming issue of PPM. In it I paid tribute to the delightful Ian Barns, who passed on a few years back after for many years editing his own little journal, Punter's Choice.Ian had a real thing about NOT backing visitors at their first start here. Especially overseas visitors. You know, I got to thinking of recent wins and close misses in the Melbourne Cup. Bauer last year, Purple Moon the year before, and Media Puzzle sprang to mind.Most

Systems: A Few Thoughts.

I just finished an article for an upcoming issue of PPM. In it I paid tribute to the delightful Ian Barns, who passed on a few years back after for many years editing his own little journal, Punter's Choice.

Ian had a real thing about NOT backing visitors at their first start here. Especially overseas visitors. You know, I got to thinking of recent wins and close misses in the Melbourne Cup. Bauer last year, Purple Moon the year before, and Media Puzzle sprang to mind.

Most of the visitors don't have the benefit of a run. That trio all did. Media Puzzle won and a lot of people believe Bauer should have too. Purple Moon may have been unlucky. The 2008 finish ranks with the finishes of 1965 and 1997 as the three closest I can recall. I got 25/1 Light Fingers, when she nosed the ultra-consistent Ziema back in 1965, but missed when Might and Power dudded me. I had Doriemus going. I didn't even feature last year.

Back to business. Ian was a systems freak. Loved them. But he loved designing them and asking why they worked. Or didn't. He demanded a lot from his qualifiers, but probably, above all, he wanted some indicator that the horse could go well in TODAY'S race under TODAY'S conditions. It's not a bad starting point.

We both demanded some kind of STRONG hint that the horse had some recent form. Ian asked for a 1.2.3.or 4 last city start, and for the same figures from another city-class start within the past 35 days. So the horse had to have run TWO city-class "firsts to fourths" within five weeks of today's run.

That alone is an interesting factor. It would blow most visitors out of the water. It might even be worth filing what I've just offered for the October/November invasion:

1. Must have run in Australia since arriving.

2. Must have run two fourths or better in the past five weeks.

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