SMALL IS BEAUTIFUL (2)Yesterday I said:The Q.E. contains (in my view) some horses that might be dispensed with. I come down to three that seem to have better chances than the other six, with one sort-of "don't knowish".In the Cup, there are several big shows. I've managed to get it down to eight, After that I'm struggling.Well, if it helps, here's how I'd be analysing these two celebrity races.The Q.E. has lost Doncaster winner Rangirangdoo and as a result I've shifted my position quit

SMALL IS BEAUTIFUL (2)

Yesterday I said:

The Q.E. contains (in my view) some horses that might be dispensed with. I come down to three that seem to have better chances than the other six, with one sort-of "don't knowish".

In the Cup, there are several big shows. I've managed to get it down to eight, After that I'm struggling.

Well, if it helps, here's how I'd be analysing these two celebrity races.

The Q.E. has lost Doncaster winner Rangirangdoo and as a result I've shifted my position quite a bit. So it's down to eight. Runner-up in the Doncaster, Road to Rock, has to contend with weight for age. He looked home in the Doncaster and has won twice at 2000 metres. Doctor Fremantle is a staying import. I don't back horses I don't know.

Vision and Power has done little since the Doncaster last year but has won twice at 2000 metres. I saw Vosne Romanee win in New Zealand. His victory over Harris Tweed was a very comfortable one. His win sequence this time in is very uneven. He too has won twice at 2000 metres and once at 2040. The form stands up.

Triple Honour ran a decent race in the Doncaster. 2000 metres? I'd be guessing there. Miss Marielle can run it, but she would need to turn recent runs upside down. Palacio de Cristal ran a blinder first up, and in fact her next two were OK. But without any places over 2000 metres, and one win and six unplaced runs at the track, I haven't got the information I'd want to support her.

Monaco Consul ran a super race to win here last spring, then easily won the Victoria Derby. The run a fortnight back in the Derby here was a superb run. He's on the shortlist as the class and also as having the weight edge.

In a nutshell, I came down to the three year old as having a huge show. Each way is available and in an eight horse field it would be my bet. What did you come down to, and why?

The Cup baffles me. I want Harris Tweed to win, as I thought the $12 offered midweek was well above his realistic chances and I accepted it, regardless of what can happen with prepost prices. It was partly to get that 11/4 the place as security. My mind keeps going back to that big race on the first Tuesday in November when he finished fifth. He might have placed with a clearer run from the turn. We have Auckland Cup winners, eight year old former winners, in-and-outers, last start enigmas... I had it down yesterday to Capecover (Adelaide Cup winner) and Precedence (the Bart factor), along with my first pick. To be honest I don't know that I've got them right, because the race defies usual logical analysis.

So, (i) I don't know but I feel the three year old with some very fine wins on the board, and (ii) the proven two miler which has clearly been set for this one race, are likely to run well. But as to tipping, I'm just glad I don't have to!