ONE-TWO-THREE-FOUR

ONE-TWO-THREE-FOURThe first one on our list is the Caulfield Cup'It looks as though, as I write this, we have a final field, or something so close that it's unlikely to be affected very much. I was particularly interested by the decisions of the trainers of Vigor (Cox Plate?) and Linton (through train) to bypass the race, as I would have thought both had pretty fair chances of doing something.Starting at the top, Shocking simply cannot be ignored. At the moment I suggest that it's nigh impossibl

ONE-TWO-THREE-FOUR

The first one on our list is the Caulfield Cup'

It looks as though, as I write this, we have a final field, or something so close that it's unlikely to be affected very much. I was particularly interested by the decisions of the trainers of Vigor (Cox Plate?) and Linton (through train) to bypass the race, as I would have thought both had pretty fair chances of doing something.
Starting at the top, Shocking simply cannot be ignored. At the moment I suggest that it's nigh impossible to argue against the proposition that he's the best stayer in the country. Simple as that. With 57 kg, he can win this race and, what's more, he jolly well might! If you take multiples and you leave him out then you are probably taking just about the biggest risk you can.

Metal Bender surprised everyone, including yours truly, with that scintillating finish last start. He will have one of the heavier jockeys on board (Hugh Bowman) but the weight is still there to be carried. He's right in it if that isn't too great a handicap. Monaco Consul was going to be anything in the spring of 2009, but you'd have to be even more of a "chewing-gum sticker" than I am to stay with him in this race at this time. Mr. Medici is more in Brian Blackwell's line than mine: I always make a practice of trying to stay away from any horse that I really don't know very well, so if it's of any use to you at all, that's my position on this horse.

The equal fourth qualifier is Faint Perfume, probably last year's best staying filly and one that has shown in her most recent run that Bart has just about got her ready to demolish a field somewhere. This one or Flemington? My own preference, and through my pocket, is for the Flemington race, but don't underestimate her. Just below her in qualifiers is her stablemate, the other four year old filly, Dariana. Sometimes you simply have to forget about a specific run. In her case we now have two that we have to forget about: the Queensland Oaks and her last start where she jumped from a wide barrier and simply never featured. Get those out of your head and everything else falls into place nicely.

Zabrasive is a favourite of a certain very large TAB group, and while I wish them all the best I just can't see it. Great trainer and gifted rider. Tokai Trick? I honestly have no idea, so I'm not much help to you. None, actually! I don't know how Buccellati earned his high ranking. Descarado might be able to surprise us (everybody but Gai Waterhouse that is), but that last run was quite dreadful. It would be interesting if he gets up there, right up front, and he and stablemate Herculian Prince find themselves on a track which favours bold front runners and offers a definite advantage to being on the rails, or very close to them. As you know, we've mentioned this other Waterhouse horse several times and, given the right circumstances, he can do what several horses that easily come to mind have done over the years in this very race. The tactics will indeed be fascinating from about the 400 metres mark to the 200.

Harris Tweed ran excellent races last year and he's on track with a last start win. He's another that would put some juice into the exotics without really surprising most serious punters. And Jessicabeel's always had the potential. Look at her record. She knows how to stay.

All I can say about Manighar is that Damien Oliver is on board. Brian B. is the guru here. Confidence in the camp though.

Master O'Reilly is a darned sight better than a lot of people, especially newcomers to the sport, might realise. He's won one of these, and he's done very well in the other one. He's well weighted for somebody with his record. Triple Honour would not get the time of day from me, were it not for my immense admiration for his trainer. I never write him off. And I can't see any way on earth of supporting Zavite. That should bring the wrath of the gods down on me.

So we're down to the last of the likely field, the South Australian with the cute name of Alcopop. That was an enormous run behind So You Think on Saturday. If it didn't take too much out of him, if it merely topped him off, then he just might do what people thought he could do at Flemington last year. His Flemington run was very good, don't you worry about that. Is he absolutely at his peak for this Saturday? That, for me, is the issue I can't answer. And even if he is, then is 3¢ kg enough to get from Shocking?

In our second carnival in-depth analysis, we'll have an early look at the Cox Plate, then we'll share our time between the VRC Derby and, of course, the biggest prize of all. Meanwhile, keep your powder dry at least until Friday: not a great deal will happen on the odds front between now and then. If something does happen, and you read about it, well you've missed it anyway. Might as well wait and see who is offering what when the real markets take final shape on Friday morning.

One final caveat: watch the weather. Over the years many a Thursday cup hope has become a hopeless proposition after five or six races have been run on the Saturday.

LATE NOTE WEDNESDAY: Watch that weather! A very close racing pal of mine has told me, as he flew out this morning, that the rain is expected to play a significant role. If he says that, it's likely to be so!