CAUTION IS MY MIDDLE NAMEThe only game in town. Indeed long term is just that.On Saturday last, I managed to find three placings from four tries, and if I'd "yankeed" them I'd have come within three cents of even.Not exactly a king's ransom? No, but near enough to keep my hook baited.One thing that came to light (something I should have foreseen, as I've been spelling it out for years) was the impact that the fourth selection has on multiples.A three-horse multiple (three doubles and a
CAUTION IS MY MIDDLE NAME
The only game in town. Indeed long term is just that.
On Saturday last, I managed to find three placings from four tries, and if I'd "yankeed" them I'd have come within three cents of even.
Not exactly a king's ransom? No, but near enough to keep my hook baited.
One thing that came to light (something I should have foreseen, as I've been spelling it out for years) was the impact that the fourth selection has on multiples.
A three-horse multiple (three doubles and a treble) costs four units.
A four horse multiple costs ELEVEN units!
So... one miss and you've lost seven of your eleven bets.
Hard, eh? Yes. it makes that fourth selection something to take VERY seriously.
In fact, I'm going back to three picks for our place experiment, as that fourth one, with its 64% impact, is too powerful. I'll grade them in order of preference and limit my place selections to three.
You might care to try too, on paper, as I will.
Additionally, I'm going to allocate three points each to the doubles and one to the treble. On the day the treble comes in (and I hope there are plenty of them, being place bets), I may be sorry I staggered the bet.
However, if only TWO make it into a place and pay $1.60 each, I'm in front. At this early stage of our experiment that's all I'm trying to do.
Stick around and see how we go. On Friday I'll pop in an update on the possibilities as I see them.