STICKING TO THE BEST COMPANY? Experts often advise novice punters to stick with the very best races. Other experts argue that you will rarely get an edge betting this way, because the form is totally exposed. This is debatable. Edges are there for the finding. So which opinion is correct? Probably neither, totally, but here are the pros and cons of sticking to the best races. Each "for" is answered with an "against". FOR 1. You know that you are supporting a fit horse. 2. T

STICKING TO THE BEST COMPANY?

Experts often advise novice punters to stick with the very best races. Other experts argue that you will rarely get an edge betting this way, because the form is totally exposed. This is debatable.

Edges are there for the finding.

So which opinion is correct? Probably neither, totally, but here are the pros and cons of sticking to the best races. Each "for" is answered with an "against".

FOR

1. You know that you are supporting a fit horse.
2. The likelihood is that your horse has been prepared for this race.
3. Most times, the market will provide a good indication as to your horse's chances in a top race.
4. You will almost invariably have a good jockey, a proven trainer and a class horse.
5. The horse's ability and form will practically always be obvious, even to the novice.
6. Horses which race in the top-class have almost always been proved successful in the past.
7. Weight for age races in particular eliminate a lot of the punter's problems.
8. You can find an edge because punters back everything.
9. Prepost markets can offer attractive early prices.

AGAINST

1. All the horses will probably be fit. Even fresh horses will be presented ready to win.
2. The likelihood is that every horse has been prepared for this race. They are all "trying".
3. The market can often been misleading. Look how many longshots win top races!
4. Every horse will probably have a good jockey, a good trainer; and it will be a "class" horse.
5. Unfortunately, this will be obvious to everyone so there is little advantage.
6. Again unfortunately, this goes for the entire field. It is rare at the top to find a no-hoper.
7. Weight for age races usually have small fields and, unless there is a champion, there is rarely much between several competitors.
8. The edge may be an illusion if the horse in question still has less chance than other horses in the race.
9. Prepost markets are usually cramped with a very biased advantage to the bookmaker.

I have also seen some very good advice to the effect that you should seek out a horse which is better than the rest of the field, which probably means that you stay out of the very best company.

Real estate agents have been known to recommend buying "the worst house in the best street". If we turn this around and apply it to racing, perhaps the recommendation would be "the best horse in the worst race".

That's next week's blog topic.