What should a genuinely good horse racing form analyst actually expect to win in a year? In April 2009, in Brian Blackwell's Practical Punting series Attainable Targets, the American handicapper James Quinn answered with arithmetic: your win percentage, your average odds on winners, and the edge the two of them make. And he set a standard that numerous handicappers are talented enough to satisfy — but few do.
FREE e-book: Getting Together with the International Experts – Part 6
What a good form analyst can realistically expect to win in a year, and the simple edge formula that shows how small gains in skill can triple your profit.
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What you'll learn:
- Fair games, small bets — why horse racing is a fair game, where betting a small amount (2 per cent of a bankroll) on races you understand beats betting boldly
- Quinn's edge formula — your win percentage multiplied by your average odds on winners, minus your loss percentage
- What you can expect to win — the amount you bet during the year multiplied by your edge, and how a small improvement in skill can triple it
- The 20 per cent standard — a 20 per cent rate of profit on prime bets to win, and why none of this applies to exotic wagering