Favourites win around 30 per cent of races and lose the other 70 — which is why betting every favourite in Australian horse racing grinds you down. A writer going by Mr Money took that apart for Practical Punting in August 2008: he counted 190 races across two Saturdays, moved one number at a time, and found that the losing stops when you put a fence at either end of the price. The same favourites everybody else is staring at — just not all of them.
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What you'll learn:
- What actually makes a horse the favourite, and the two numbers the whole idea rests on — favourites win around 30 per cent of races, and they lose the other 70
- The minimum-dividend sweep over 190 races: betting every favourite lost $2 for a win and $18 for a place; a $1.50 floor still lost $2.60; $2 turned the first profit, $2.80 from 167 bets; $3 was the best of them at $11.10 from 101 bets, and beyond $3 the profit slid backwards
- Why he dropped place betting on favourites altogether, then came at it from the other end — a $5 ceiling gave $5 from 183 bets, $4.50 gave $4.40 from 179, and $4 finished 40 cents down from 159
- The rule the two sweeps produced — the favourite is a bet only when it is paying between $3 and $5 inclusive — and the two Saturdays he tested it over: 103 bets, 34 winners, a 33 per cent strike rate and $18.10 profit. His figures, from June 2008, not a promise about next Saturday
📘
FREE e-book — "Feed On The Favourites": download it free and keep the full method beside you every race day 👉
https://pp.practicalpunting.com.au/feed-on-the-favourites/