One part of the racing equation is to select the right races to bet in. Most novice punters will immediately suggest betting in all the Group races, which on face value is a meritorious suggestion The problem, however, is that quite a few of these races are littered with genuine chances on their best form lines and to make selections in those type of races is paramount to just plain guessing. Admittedly the guessing comes with some thought behind it but in the long term it is a tough gig trying
One part of the racing equation is to select the right races to bet in. Most novice punters will immediately suggest betting in all the Group races, which on face value is a meritorious suggestion The problem, however, is that quite a few of these races are littered with genuine chances on their best form lines and to make selections in those type of races is paramount to just plain guessing. Admittedly the guessing comes with some thought behind it but in the long term it is a tough gig trying to bet successfully in races with many chances.
This weekend there are several open class races that have caused me great concern to the point that I am throwing my hands in the air in frustration trying to jiggle the various factors into something comprehensible form wise. For instance, have a look at Race 2 in Brisbane where we have 20 runners! I have looked at this race thirty seven times and each time I can make a case for a different selection. A no bet race for sure.
A similar set of circumstances abounds in Race 7 . This race would be relatively easy if I knew El Cambio was going to get a clear run as he has drawn horribly and will again have to ease back early and go for it as they straighten. That is not my idea of a good bet. If he is a risk do I take a chance on Swiss Ace who ran a shocker last start and was vetted and tomorrow is also the recipient of a shocking barrier. Is Ortensia such a good filly she can beat the boys? Some say she is but racing history decrees 3 year old fillies against open company need to be really good. I am not going to back her at 3/1 to find out. Up go my arms again!!
In Perth the best race on the programme is the 1200m wfa Roma Cup but with Tarzi, the best horse in the race, off 42 days and with Idyllic Prince, Grand Nirvana and Hadabeclorka (lost plate, disappointed for run) 2nd up from the same race a fortnight ago when there was 1.3L between them which way do you go. Again, form wise it is better to sit it out for a serious bet. The other open company race is Race 1 , which on first quick thoughts looks a match race between Reverend Lovejoy and Star Encounter, has several worrying aspects to it I will mention in my podcast tomorrow.
The main sprint at Flemington , Race 7, only has 11 runners but barring Pillar Of Hercules, Bond Street, Let Loushe and Amerryking the other seven runners all have good chances of winning the race. By the way, if one of those I have dropped won I would not be totally surprised either.
Tomorrow morning I will tip very speculative, mini wagers in these harder events as I know most people, including myself, always like a small interest but I can assure you the word mini should be highlighted as MINI.