A Vigorous Nod of ApprovalMy Australian spellchecker wasn't happy with Vigor. Well, I don't care too much what he's called or the American spelling, if he can win the Melbourne Cup.Danny O'Brien took the chance at 7.25 on Saturday morning. He withdrew the horse from the weight for age Mackinnon Stakes. At that time it was 28th for the Cup, but the situation was knife-edged. Twenty four finals will be declared tonight, with no emergencies. Efficient and Kirklees, above him in the list, are both u
A Vigorous Nod of Approval
My Australian spellchecker wasn't happy with Vigor. Well, I don't care too much what he's called or the American spelling, if he can win the Melbourne Cup.
Danny O'Brien took the chance at 7.25 on Saturday morning. He withdrew the horse from the weight for age Mackinnon Stakes. At that time it was 28th for the Cup, but the situation was knife-edged. Twenty four finals will be declared tonight, with no emergencies. Efficient and Kirklees, above him in the list, are both under clouds. Some others are on the "must win Saturday" list. Not just to get in, but (if they are in) to be worth starting.
And the VRC can use its discretionary powers if it sees fit. Through my pocket, but also on revealed class and form, I would be doing that should Vigor miss the 24.
So it's a punt. I punted last week and took the horse in question at $34 and again at $31. I knew the risks. I trusted the horse and (particularly) the trainer. If we miss the cut, so be it. I believe that it was the way to go. This horse has won five of his seven starts at the track and is strong to at least 2500 metres. He has a guest weight, an invitee's weight in fact, for a horse of his quality. After the Caulfield Cup run he'll never get that weight again.
Obviously there would have been some very heavy discussion in the twelve hours or so prior to Saturday morning's cut-off time for withdrawals.
Is Vigor NOW worth a gamble at $16, $14 or $13 (three online offers at 11.35am)?
I feel not, as the majority of horses above him in favouritism order probably won't shift; and you can now wait for Sunday. That means a guaranteed run. I don't have that. If Vigor makes the field he'll in all likelihood still be offered at very close to these prices.
Was that early bet of mine wise? If the horse starts, yes.
If not, well, what do you reckon?