Unbeaten favourite Proxima Dea has drawn wide in Thursday's VRC Oaks at Flemington, while Wakeful winner De Armas jumps from barrier 1.
Thursday's VRC Oaks (2500m) shapes as a two-horse market, and the barrier draw has made it more interesting. The unbeaten favourite Proxima Dea has drawn barrier 19 in a field of 20. Her main rival, the Wakeful Stakes winner De Armas, jumps from barrier 1.
The favourite
Proxima Dea, trained by David Payne, is five from five. She won the Group 3 Gloaming Stakes at Rosehill and then the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick, beating Global Goal by a length and a half. Zac Lloyd keeps the ride.
The question is the draw. Over 2500m the Oaks gives a jockey time to find cover, but drawing 19 at Flemington still means either using early speed or giving up ground.
The Waller filly
De Armas earned her Oaks start with a strong win in Saturday's Wakeful Stakes, beating Girl With A Pearl by 1.3 lengths. James McDonald rides from the inside gate. The Wakeful has been a good guide to the Oaks: Aristia, Miami Bound, Willowy and Treasurethe Moment have all won both races since 2018.
Others to note
- Icelady (barrier 4): second in the Thousand Guineas and third in the Wakeful for Ciaron Maher, ridden by Cup-winning jockey Ethan Brown.
- Quick Finish (barrier 5): third in the Victoria Derby against the colts after winning the Ethereal Stakes.
- Churchill Rose (barrier 10): fourth in the Wakeful for Craig Williams.
The Oaks is due off at 5:10pm as race 8 on Thursday's Flemington card.
The punting angle
The market has both leading chances at short prices, so the draw is the main thing to weigh up. If you think Proxima Dea can overcome barrier 19 and run out the trip, she is the one. If you are worried about the gate, De Armas has the better run on paper and the formline that has worked in this race. Keep an eye on the track. Overnight rain changed the surface on Cup day, and a stamina test suits fillies with proven 2000m-plus form.