Flemington was a Good 4 on Sunday, but Monday rain is likely to push the Melbourne Cup track into the soft range, while Sam Clipperton is bullish about Juja Kibo.
The final countdown to the Melbourne Cup (3200m) has come down to two questions: how much rain will fall on Flemington, and who will ride Shockletz?
Track and weather
Flemington was rated a Good 4 on Sunday morning after 3.8mm fell during Derby Day racing. Track manager Liam O'Keeffe expects 5mm to 10mm on Monday, which would leave the track around a Soft 5 or Soft 6 for Cup day. The Bureau of Meteorology's forecast for Monday was higher, with showers and a chance of an afternoon thunderstorm.
Tuesday's outlook is cooler and mostly dry. A southerly change, a top of about 19 degrees and the chance of a morning shower are expected, so the track could improve as the day goes on. The rail will be out 3m for Cup day, which covers the wear from the Derby Day meeting.
Clipperton's weight problem solved
Sam Clipperton had agreed to ride Juja Kibo at 53.5kg, below his normal riding weight. Juja Kibo's Moonee Valley Gold Cup win earned him a 1.5kg penalty to 55kg, which is right where Clipperton is comfortable. That means no weight-loss struggle on Cup eve.
Clipperton has ridden the Maher stayer in all four of his starts this preparation, including wins in the Metropolitan and the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. He described him as very fit, push-button and improving with every run, and he expects a career-best performance on Tuesday.
Shockletz rider still unconfirmed
The VRC said on Monday that the only thing still to be settled for Shockletz was her rider. Harry Coffey had a procedure on Sunday after his Derby Day fall and has been given every chance to prove his fitness. Maher said the mare has strengthened with patient handling, said she reminds him of High Emocean, third in the 2022 Cup, and thinks she has an excellent chance at 51kg.
Other notes
- Apprentice Jabez Johnstone, 20, has his first Cup ride on Maher's Mr Monaco.
- Maher has a record seven runners, and Joseph O'Brien has five.
- The Cup jumps at 3pm (AEDT) as race 7.
The punting angle
A Soft 5 or Soft 6 changes things in a 3200m race. Stamina gets tested harder, and horses with proven wet-track form, like Mr Monaco, get a lift. If the morning showers clear, the track may improve to a Good 4 by the Cup, so check the latest rating update before you finalise your bets. See all the runners on our Melbourne Cup horses page.
FREE: The 2026 Melbourne Cup Guide – our Best Bet, our top six, plus an outsider and a longshot we like at the odds – with the final field, barriers and prices.