The Cups Plan
With the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups just around the corner I thought it would be worthwhile looking at a system for picking winners in these distance races.
Followers of ratings methods whether they be class weight based or time based often have difficulties with distance races. There is a lot more time for things to go wrong during these races and tactics and pace usually play a much greater role in the outcome of the race. In particular, one finds that distance ability is much more important than other form factors in these races.
Accordingly, the plan for this month will revolve around a horse’s ability to win at the distance or a suitably close distance.
To operate the system you will need a formguide that gives the number of starts and wins at particular distances. Most of the major formguides started publishing this information over the last year or two
Our plan will concentrate on races at 2400 metres and 3200 metres. In examining a horse’s distance ability we will look at its performances over distances from 2000 metres to 3200 metres. Without any further introduction, here is the plan.
THE RULES
1. Consider all flat races over either 2400 metres or 3200 metres that are open to horses of all ages.
2. If the race is over 2400 metres then the horse must have:
(i) won at least twice over 2000 metres or longer;
(ii) raced at least twice over exactly 2400 metres;
(iii) had its last start over 2000 metres or longer.
3. If the race is over 3200 metres then the horse must have:
(i) won at least twice over 2400 metres or longer;
(ii) raced at least twice over exactly 3200 metres;
(iii) had its last start over 2400 metres or longer.
4. The horse must have last raced no longer than nine days ago.
5. If the track is slow then the horse must have been placed at its last start and the track for that start must have been slow or heavy.
6. If the track is heavy then the horse must have been placed at its last start and the track for that start must have been slow or heavy.
7. Back all qualifiers provided they are at odds of 4/1 or longer.
It should be noted that races must be over either 2400 metres or 3200 metres but they need not necessarily be cup races. Races restricted to certain aged horses, for example Oaks and St Legers, are excluded. Races over distances like 2500 metres or 2800 metres are also excluded.
Note also that the approach outlined in rules 2 and 3 can be used in conjunction with ratings or other selection approaches as a distance qualifying method. Now that the information on distance performances is readily available you have no excuse for not using such information.
The last start within nine days rule is an important one. Generally horses racing over longer distances do not keep their condition as long as horses racing in sprints. It is for this reason that I like to make sure the horse has raced quite recently. I have used nine days instead of seven days so as not to automatically exclude horses that race in feature cups on a Monday and quite often last faced on the Saturday of the previous weekend.
STAKING
The best approach with this system is to ‘Dutch Book’ the selections. This will ensure a fixed return irrespective of which selection wins.
As with many feature cup races you might have four or five selections in a race. A quick example of the ‘Dutch Book’ 1991 approach will convince you
of its suitability.
Suppose you have four selections at 6/1, 8/1, 10/1 and 16/1.
To calculate your bet for each selection you must add one to the selection’s price and divide the result into 100. (This is the same as the calculation for determining the associated probability of a horse winning.)
Rounding to the nearest unit we find that the 6/1 selection should be backed with 14 units (since 100 divided by seven is near enough to 14).
Similarly the 8/1 chance should be backed with 11 units, the 10/1 chance with nine units and the 16/1 chance with six units.
Total outlay is 14 + 11 + 9 + 6 or 40 units.
As long as the winner comes from one of the four selections, the return will be 100 units for an overall profit of 60 units.
The beauty of this approach is that the return will be 100 units no matter which of the selections wins. This is because returns are calculated by adding one to the bookie’s price for the horse and multiplying the result by the number of units outlaid on the horse (the exact reverse of our ‘Dutch Book’ calculation).
Readers keen on exotic betting can of course box the selections in quinellas and trifectas. In doing so you could also include the favourite when not a selection.
WORKOUT
In the Rosehill Winter Cup over 2400 metres on July 20 there were three selections. Royal Marine at 7/1, Webster’s Wish at 4/1 and Zic Zac Blitz at 16/1.
Following the ‘Dutch Book’ staking plan, total outlay would have been 38 units (12 + 20 + 6). Webster’s Wish won so the return would have been 100 units for a profit of 62 units. Note that this is a classic example of how ‘Dutch Book’ betting on a number of horses can still produce a healthy profit despite the low price of the winner.
Good luck with the cups!
PPM, September 91