I normally give the Golden Slipper a miss but this year I believe the winner is within punting reach for three good reasons. Crystal Lily (Br1), Decision Time (Br2) , Chance Bye (Br3), Brightexpectations (Br4), Lohan (Br7), Military Rose (Br8) and Solar Charged (Br13) are all capable of leading therefore the early pace will be H for hectic. The question we cannot answer is which jockeys will be sensible and ease out of any suicidal battle for the clear lead and take their chances of getting a ru
I normally give the Golden Slipper a miss but this year I believe the winner is within punting reach for three good reasons. Crystal Lily (Br1), Decision Time (Br2) , Chance Bye (Br3), Brightexpectations (Br4), Lohan (Br7), Military Rose (Br8) and Solar Charged (Br13) are all capable of leading therefore the early pace will be H for hectic. The question we cannot answer is which jockeys will be sensible and ease out of any suicidal battle for the clear lead and take their chances of getting a run upon straightening. If the pace is suicidal both Military Rose and Solar Charged will have to work early and will be vulnerable in the last 100m.
The horse I am selecting is Beneteau because I believe he will receive a cosy run about 5-6 lengths off the pace and he has the ability to run the excellent sectionals he will need to win the race. I also believe he has beaten better horses heading to the Golden Slipper than several of the other main chances as he has beaten Willow Creek, Crystal Lily and Shaaheq who have won races since Benteau's great Blue Diamond Stakes run.
Crystal Lily is my second selection (main worry crowding from barrier 1) from Military Rose (might be caught wide) and Chance Bye (not raced for several weeks) with my roughie Carved In Stone (improver on excellent first race start).
VicTAB has Military Rose at $3.60 which means I will be playing bookmaker on Betfair as, in my opinion, this is a poor price. I am prepared to consider Crystal Lily ($5.50), Brightexpectations ($5.50) and Chance Bye ($9.50) to be fair value but naturally my value is Beneteau ($13.00) as I have him price around 5/1. With forecast rain I will be watching the early races very keenly to note how horses racing near the fence are handling the conditions. If the fence is off Military Rose will become a better chance and horses like Crystal Lily and Chance Bye may well become riskier propositions. This is what the punt is all about, isn't it: calculations, observations and then the ultimate - the bet.