In my Friday blog I discussed the issue of trying to find a true favourite, using the $3.00 or less pre post favourites in "The Sportsman", and I listed a range of blockers I use to get rid of the deadwood. The aftermath shows there were 14 runners, after scratchings, with 4 winners coming from those I eliminated. There is one thing you must take into your stride when "bagging" favourites: some of them are going to win.In the finish you have to look at how you would have gone

In my Friday blog I discussed the issue of trying to find a true favourite, using the $3.00 or less pre post favourites in "The Sportsman", and I listed a range of blockers I use to get rid of the deadwood. The aftermath shows there were 14 runners, after scratchings, with 4 winners coming from those I eliminated. There is one thing you must take into your stride when "bagging" favourites: some of them are going to win.

In the finish you have to look at how you would have gone with the horses you kept and what happened to those eliminated. As it turned out I had no true favourites to back due to the track at Morphettville becoming worse than than the Dead 4 I was prepared to accept. The prices of those I eliminated who lost were $4.00 Temple Of Doom (Qld), $7.50 Danza Doll, $3.30 Pinwheel, $7.00 Informality (NSW), $1.80 Tropic Thunder, $1.80 Bombay Sling (SA) and in WA $1.65 Mabel Grace, $2.70 Pago Rock, $3.80 Liquidation, $3.30 Galaxy Queen. The winners were Mascareri $3.40 (NSW), $1.75 Our Baby Bonus, $3.00 Beyond Pardon (Vic) and $2.20 All About Annie (SA).

If you laid all of the losers on Betfair to lose $100 you would have won about $520 and lost about $400 on the winners based on the SP figures but in all fairness you would have needed to lay better prices than SP on the losers. Time will tell if the reasons for elimination are a stepping stone towards laying the risky conveyances as one swallow does not make a spring but it is worth drawing up a list yourself for future reference. If the list proves itself isn't it easier to make money by laying than trying to find the winner amongst the others.