Caspar Fownes has a grip on the Community Chest Cup (1,650m) at Happy Valley tonight and track specialist Royal Partner holds the premier position - but only just, reports the Racing Post in Hong Kong.
Fownes has Royal Partner (Joao Moreira), Best Show and Robust Momentum (Vincent Ho Chak-yiu) in the 10-horse field and, while Best Show looks well held, there isn't a great deal to choose between Fownes' other pair.
Royal Partner returned for the season with a midfield finish behind Excel Oneself last week over 1,200m, a trip on the short side for him at the best of times and a slow lead pace ensured he never got into the hunt. Stepping back up to the Valley 1,650m, where Royal Partner has won three of 12 and finished in the first four another six times, is strongly in his favour.
This looks a suitable assignment off his lowest rating in over 18 months, and he would look a short-priced chance with tempo but that is his main danger.
After the first 200m, Little Dragon and Robust Momentum will be forward from the outside draws, Trump will push up in the centre and Horse Of Fortune (Douglas Whyte) and Young Ranger (Derek Leung Ka-chun) will be prominent on the inside.
That's five horses looking for a handy spot early but all with one thing in common - their riders will be looking around for somebody else to lead.
Fownes is one of the more tactically proficient trainers in town so fit, in-form and lightly weighted Robust Momentum might be the positive one while others dither.
Whoever leads will slow the field in the back straight and take a breather and how much of a breather will tell the tale of the race.