PERILS OF EARLY BETTINGIt's become apparent to me over the past months that, more often than not, the top fluctuation in the final forty minutes of betting will belt the ears off the early prices.That's been a surprise and a revelation.Yesterday a horse named Albertinelli might have won with a better judged race from a top rider. To allow the favourite to skip right away while you sit back second last is inexcusable in a field of ten, even if you did elect to drop back early. That aside, the hor
PERILS OF EARLY BETTING
It's become apparent to me over the past months that, more often than not, the top fluctuation in the final forty minutes of betting will belt the ears off the early prices.
That's been a surprise and a revelation.
Yesterday a horse named Albertinelli might have won with a better judged race from a top rider. To allow the favourite to skip right away while you sit back second last is inexcusable in a field of ten, even if you did elect to drop back early. That aside, the horse was $3.80 to $4.00 when the markets opened and around $4.20 late in the morning.
It blew to $5 at one stage then firmed to $4.40 where it stayed. One TAB was paying a dollar more. Its place divvy, had you wanted to back it each way, was marginally less on the NSW TAB than on the early market.
This spurred me to thinking that we can note the early prices in Saturday's big Rosehill carnival meeting, and then see how they stack up. The papers give out a set of prices. I'm blessed if I know where they get them, but it isn't from TAB fixed odds, and it isn't from the large betting concern I consulted.
Some races are not open for betting, including the opening race which has Griffon ("suspended") entered. SInce the first offer is going to be prohibitive anyway I'll just ignore it.
Here they are:
Race/ Horse(s)/ Paper Price/ TAB Fixed Price/ Online Corporate Price
2 Sacred Choice 2.50 3.80 no offer
3 Precedence 2.80 1.70 1.70
4 Hinchinbrook 2.00 2.00 2.05
5 Georgette Silk 3.00 3.20 3.50
6 Rock Kingdom 2.50 3.20 3.40
7 Shoot Out 2.00 3.20 3.40
8 Khas Kura 3.50 no offer no offer
9 Beaded 2.50 3.20 no offer
In the seventh you might note that TAB Number 1 (Rock Classic) is listed at $6.00 in the paper, whereas TAB Fixed gives $3.80 and the other lot have him equal favourite at $3.40.
What do we do with these figures? I vote we watch them and then we have another look on Monday and see what we can make of them. One swallow doesn't make a summer, of course, but if my suspicions are on target we might have something worthwhile to think about!.