In the third article in our series featuring the best staking and selection plans from Banker Weekly, our expert The Optimist writes this month about some of his favourite staking ideas. In next month's October issue, we'll feature more great ideas from Banker Weekly's experts.
Parlay betting, or, as it used to be known, The Yankee, has become increasingly popular in Australia since the TABs in the various States introduced all-up betting (and long overdue it was, too). Naturally, everyone tries to hit a Yankee combination in one go. But what if you adopted a more patient approach?
I raised this idea in Banker Weekly last November and from the number of letters I received from readers it obviously struck a chord. My point is that you don't simply have to bet 11 units (on a linkup of four horses into six doubles, four trebles and an accumulator).
Firstly, a bit of history: Basically, the Yankee was designed in Britain in the 1930s. It's been published there, and just about everywhere else, in various forms since then. Now, I made a survey of my own betting habits some time back and I found that it was extremely difficult to pick four winners, or even four placegetters, in four bets during one afternoon.
Surprised? Well, you shouldn't be. To snare two from four is marvellous. The secret to winning, naturally, is ODDS OBTAINED. If you get two from four and they are at 6-4 on, you won't do very well. But two winners at 6-4 will set you up very nicely. You'll make 25 per cent profit on your outlay of 4 units. What I am proposing is that you establish an entirely separate form of betting, and look to a Yankee spread over four weeks, plus a component set of singles bets.
EXAMPLE: four single bets, maximum of six doubles, maximum of four trebles, one accumulator.
On Week One, you have only a single responsibility-to find one winner! Call it Selection A. The second week is the next stage of the bet. If you struck a winner on Week One there are no more single bets, as you have covered your outlay. I'll show you how:
The bet is 20 units to win Week One.
Ten of those units are on for a single bet. You withdraw 50 per cent of your return.
The other 10 bets are as follows: Three doubles with B, C and D at two units each; three trebles on ABC, ABD and ACD at 1 unit each, one accumulator on ABCD at one unit.
If A wins on Week One, you merely follow the existing bets through-but the other bets (BC, BD, CD, BCD) are not struck. In other words, get that first winner up and your bet ends up as one single, three doubles, three trebles and an accumulator.
If a loser is struck on Week One. merely wait another week and try to get a start again.
Now for other popular ideas of mine from Banker Weekly:
A PUNTER'S YEAR
Have you ever seriously sat down and worked out what you bet in relation to what you earn through less 'dangerous' pursuits? What I mean is this-have you checked your outlay on the horses against your income? Let me explain: If you are paying, say, 35 cents in the dollar taxation, then you have to make adjustments to all your expenses to see how much you are really paying for your pleasures. If it's 50 cents in the dollar tax then you have to double your outlay.
If you outlaid $2,000 per year on betting and you were on 50 cents in the dollar tax, you would be really taking $4,000 of your gross income for betting purposes. That is, $80 a week and not $40 as you may have been kidding yourself. So let's go on with this idea and see how we can set things up:
ONE YEAR: Let's say you earn $30,000.
You decide to bet 10 per cent ($3,000) over the year.
ONE MONTH. Now, 1-12th of that 10 per cent is $250.
ONE WEEK: Makes $62.50.
If you add that up and multiply it all out it will come to $62.50 x 4 x 12 = $3,000, and that leaves you with four weeks' holiday! Now let us assume that these are your final dollars, so they are taxable at about half. You are, therefore, really betting with $6,000 and you have already paid half of it to the taxman.
What about trying to double your betting dollars in a year, to recoup those tax dollars? Winning $3,000 would be great if it happened, and at $60 a week, plus or minus, your betting would be under control. You bet on, say, your four best bets of the week at $15 each. The other $2.50 goes on a double, a quinella (or a lottery ticket!). I didn't pluck $15 from the air. It actually represents half a per cent of your bank. It means you can have 200 (TWO HUNDRED!!) losing bets before you have wiped out your annual bank. If it begins to build you continue to bet at half a per cent of the highest point of your bank. NEVER GO BACKWARDS. Always make it half a per cent of the highest point.
THE DOUBLES SET-UP
The ability nowadays to bet all-up is a great advantage for all punters. But you don't have to get all your winning bets together on the one day. Why not make your own doubles as you wish-and bet day-to-day? Willpower is needed, naturally.
THE ACTION
DAY ONE: $40 Horse A. If win, pocket the odds to $10 and distribute the return on the other $30 as follows:
1/3rd the return as a double on to Day Two.
1/3rd the return as a treble on to Day Two.
1/3rd the return as a double on to Day Three.
In other words, the treble is the same as any other but you are taking it over your best three selections over a three-raceday period.
Each horse starts a new sequence and since you treat each new day as a new ball game it is simple to keep the records separate.
Let us assume that our bet on Day One wins at 5-2. Return for a $40 bet is $140 (profit being $100). We return the odds to $10, plus the $10 stake itself to the bank. That means $35 to our bank. The remaining $105 is distributed three ways-$35 to the second day's selection: as a double, another $35 to it as part of the treble and the final $35 goes forward to the third day's horse for the double.
DAY TWO: We carry forward the two lots of $35, and we also start a new $40 sequence. That $40 sequence is followed through just like the one we are already dealing with. Let's be optimistic and suggest that our second horse also wins at 5-2. We had $35 for the double, so we bank that double because it's over ($122.50). The other $35 also progresses to $122.50 as part of the treble and goes on to our selection on the third day (we already have $35 there for the double from Day One).
DAY THREE: We arrive here with $122.50 and $35 already on from Day One. Can you imagine the joy if the third horse got up. You would have $122.50 going on to complete the treble and $35 going on for the double.
It's all very nice in theory, but you do have to find the winners!
THE'LOOK'PLAN
This is a conservative staking plan and it's nice and simple, too. The rules are as follows:
- Select no more than five horses for the afternoon.
- Back the first at $20 for the place.
- If it places, then remove the stake ($20) and distribute the rest amongst the other four selections in equal amounts.
- If it loses, go to the next horse and treat it as your *first bet of the afternoon.
- Each time a horse places, withdraw the 'stake and allocate the rest to the other horses.
Let's say your first horse won and paid $1.50 (for $l) for a place. You now have $10 to distribute on the other four horses, at $2.50 each.
If they all failed to run a place(!) you would still have come out level on the day. Don't forget that each time a horse places, you take the profit and split it on the other horses to come. You can have a lot of fun, and steady profits, from this plan.
THE PROGRESSIVE PLAN
This is a progression staking plan that will escalate level stake profits.
RULE ONE: Your selection method must be capable of making a level stakes profit.
RULE TWO: Establish a good bank.
RULE THREE: Make your starting point 2.5 per cent of the bank. Never decrease the starting bet. Let's assume the bank is $500-the starting bet will be $12.50.
RULE FOUR: Whenever the bank increases by 10 per cent, the bet increases by 0.5 per cent of the bank.
Example: Bank of $500. Bet $12.50. It wins, returning you a profit of $50 (a win at 4-1). The bank is now $550, and the bank has increased by 10 per cent. The bet is now not 2.5 per cent of the bank, but 3 per cent (0.5 per cent has been added). The next bet is $16.50 (3 per cent of $550).
At this rate, the bank could possibly mount to 100 per cent of the bank but no one is that silly. When the bet is 4.5 per cent of the bank, we stop and declare a dividend.
At this stage, the bet will be almost $750, and, as you will notice, a profit of nearly 50 per cent will have been struck. Now, we return to a bank of $500 and work through it again. The bet can never exceed 4.5 per cent, which allows a sequence of 40 losers to wipe out the bank, while a couple of good winners can raise it by 50 per cent.
Click here to read Part 4.
Click here to read Part 5.
Click here to read Part 1.
Click here to read Part 2.
By The Optimist
PRACTICAL PUNTING - OCTOBER 1988