Danny O'Brien's True Rebel shares Derby favouritism after winning the Vase, but his rider has doubts about 2500m and the market is tight.
The $3 million Victoria Derby (2500m) headlines Derby Day at Flemington this Saturday, 31 October, and it shapes as one of the more open three-year-old staying races in recent years. Nominations closed on Monday with 24 colts and geldings, and the final field is due to be confirmed on Wednesday.
True Rebel's Vase win
Danny O'Brien's True Rebel put himself at the top of the market by winning the Group 2 Vase (2040m) last Saturday. The race was run at Flemington this year. Ridden for the first time by Blake Shinn, the colt started the $2.60 favourite and held off the leader Skua by a half-length, with the filly Salann third.
It was his first run beyond a mile, and only his fourth start. O'Brien picked him up for $80,000 at the Magic Millions yearling sale. He's by the sprinter Rebel Dane, so the extra 460 metres on Saturday is the big question. Shinn has said he thinks the colt may be at his best between a mile and 1800m, while O'Brien believes he wants further. True Rebel is expected to run if he pulled up well from the Vase.
The main rivals
True Rebel was sharing favouritism with Chris Waller's Stormy Marco, who was fourth in the Spring Champion Stakes, when the market updated this week. Others near the top include:
- Cormier (Paul Messara & Leah Gavranich)
- Hierarchy (Anthony & Sam Freedman)
- King Snitz (Shane Jackson)
- Murshidi (Ciaron Maher) – Geelong Classic winner
- Skua (Ciaron Maher) – Vase runner-up
The punting angle
The Derby is usually a race where stamina and a good draw count for a lot. When the barriers come out, look at which runners have been strongest late over 2000m or further, not just who has the best rating at a mile. Skua ran a tough race from the front in the Vase. Our Sunday report will have the full Derby Day results.