A common gripe about harness racing is that there are too many short priced favourites. Some punters complain that because the form is so exposed and the animals so reliable, there is no value to be had by betting on the trots.

Well, I am here to tell you that value abounds in harness racing. In every race at every meeting there are one or two (and sometimes many) runners going off at extreme “overs” on the tote.

I’ve put together a quick and effective way of framing your own market on a race: By only investing on the runners that represent the greatest overlays you can often achieve some amazing returns! But first, let me make two assumptions:

(a) You have some understanding of harness racing and are able to compare barriers, class and fitness to identify the strongest chances in each race; and

(b) You can use a calculator or a computer spreadsheet.

Still with me? Good, let’s get started.

Using your chosen formguide, identify the runner that you consider has the best chance of winning the race. This is your KEY SELECTION and this runner always rates a 10.

Now go through the rest of the field and assess each runner, taking into account ?their fitness, barrier draw, form and driver, assigning each runner a rating between 1 and 10 depending on how they stack up against your KEY SELECTION. Pacers you consider have virtually no chance of winning should be assigned 1, and pacers you think are legitimate dangers should be assigned figures upwards from the minimum rating of 1 depending on their form and ability.

Here’s an example from a race I assessed at Newcastle Paceway recently:

NITA MORRIS 8
THE TRUMP CARD 1
ALIENDO6
CHING IDA10
SPLASHING IN BLACK1
SUNDOWNERS MISTAKE 1
SCOOTOLI 7
SMOOTH AS HONEY 1
ARMBRO OPERATOR 1
TOTAL36

In this race I felt Ching Ida was the most obvious winning chance after a debut third placing at Newcastle a week earlier. I gave three others strong hopes of winning as well: Nita Morris was in fair form and Aliendo looked a likely improver, whilst Scootoli had trialled well after a recent let-up and looked to get a nice trip.

I saw few redeeming features in the other runners and all were given the minimum rating. The total “chances” in this race equalled 36. By dividing each runner’s chance by the total, we get the percentage chance of each runner winning the race today (e.g. Nita Morris – 8 ÷ 36 = 0.22 or 22 per cent):

NITA MORRIS22%
THE TRUMP CARD3%
ALIENDO17%
CHING IDA 28%
SPLASHING IN BLACK3%
SUNDOWNERS MISTAKE 3%
SCOOTOLI19%
SMOOTH AS HONEY3%
ARMBRO OPERATOR 3%

Can you see where this is heading? Each percentage can now be converted to a price. A 100 per cent rating means a horse literally can’t lose and therefore is money back on the tote. A rating of 50 per cent means a horse is even money to win, or $2 for every dollar invested. 0 per cent means the horse is no chance and you can write your own ticket, so to speak.

All other per cent ratings fit in around these. The ready reckoner on this page with this article also converts your per cent chance to a price that includes the TAB takeout of around 20 per cent of the pool. This ensures that you only ever back a runner when you truly have a great overlay.

Let’s look at my assessed prices and the starting NSW TAB prices in the sample race:

 My PriceTAB Price
NITA MORRIS$5.50$2.80
THE TRUMP CARD $100.00$7.00
ALIENDO$7.00$6.90
CHING IDA$4.50$3.20
SPLASHING IN BLACK$100.00$104.00
SUNDOWNERS MISTAKE$100.00$12.00
SCOOTOLI$6.50$21.00
SMOOTH AS HONEY$100.00 $17.00
ARMBRO OPERATOR$100.00$36.00

Scootoli benefited from a fast tempo to storm home and beat Smooth As Honey and the leader Nita Morris in a close finish. As you can imagine, my simple win bet on the best overlay in the race gave me a tremendous profit for the day.

The best part about it was that whilst I still thought Ching Ida had the best chance of winning, I achieved an exceptional payout thanks to a little extra work. In running sixth, Ching Ida proved that $3.20 on the tote was probably under the odds.

Of course, it won’t always be this easy. Many times I am not on my top rated selection when it wins. Generally these runners are massive underlays (e.g. odds-on when I assessed them around $3.00) so I am not too upset to see them salute without my support because I know that I have the edge in the long run.

Conversely, often many runners in the one race will qualify as overlays and on these occasions I like give myself a chance at a nice collect by investing on the shortest assessed runner who is also an overlay. Alternatively, you can splurge out on exotics, using your overlays as standouts. You generally still get the great overlay when you hit a trifecta or exacta.

If you can’t bear to let a potential winner slip through your fingers, you may also choose to bet your highly fancied runners in a Dutch book according to your prices.

I recommend dividing your stake between the runners you assess at less than $10, or only your top five rated runners. After all, these are the pacers that you consider have the strongest chance of winning. The beauty of the harness racing Dutch book is that you can place your bets at any time without waiting to see the TAB prices, and you get a great run for your money with some level of support on several runners at varying prices.

When you hit a winner you are assured of some sort of return and when you hit an overlay winner you are in for a very nice collect. You can download a free Dutch book calculator at www.practicalpunting. com.au/ppmcalc. A Dutch book on my sample race with a $100 investment would look like this:

 My PriceOutlayExpected ReturnActual Return
NITA MORRIS$5.50261430
ALIENDO$7.00201400
CHING IDA$4.50321440
SCOOTOLI$6.5022143462
  $100 $462
There is something empowering in having your own opinion on the chances of every runner in a harness race. You can attack when you feel you have the edge or sit out when the market does not meet your requirements. My simple method of framing the market gives you an advantage over your fellow punters who often blindly bet their top selection regardless of price.

When your mate asks “how could you pick the winner at that price?” you can now tell him it was simply a matter of value.

By Aaron Lee

PRACTICAL PUNTING – FEBRUARY 2007