Many last-start winners win again and one region potential profit source: Perth!
WA racing has always displayed a certain level of consistency. The track ratings are nearly always fast, and, with only two metropolitan tracks, some of the variations that beat many punters elsewhere are eliminated. But it is not only these conditions that are consistent.
From my Pureform database, the following figures were extracted for last-start city winners at their next metropolitan start (using data from Ascot and Belmont meetings from August 1995 to April 1997).
PLACE
NEXT START | NO.
PLACERS | STRIKE
% |
|---|
| 1 | 218 | 21.1% |
| 2 | 187 | 18.1% |
| 3 | 119 | 11.5% |
| 4 | 90 | 8.7% |
| 5 | 85 | 8.2% |
| 6 | 80 | 7.8% |
| 7 | 67 | 6.5% |
| 8 | 40 | 3.9% |
| 9 | 39 | 3.8% |
| 10 | 37 | 3.6% |
| 11 | 22 | 2.1% |
| 12 | 14 | 1.4% |
| 13 | 12 | 1.2% |
| 14 | 12 | 1.2% |
| 15 | 6 | 0.6% |
| 16 | 3 | 0.3% |
| Average SP: 3.7/1 |
| Total Horses: 1031 |
Explanation: Of the 1031 last-start city winners considered in this sample, 218 won again. Three of these ran 16th.
Perth did not produce the highest percentage of repeat city winners, but did yield over 50 per cent repeat placegetters. Horses running in Perth display a high level of consistency, a factor that as yet has not been fully exploited.
With 21.1 per cent winners at an average price of 3.7/1, there is clearly great scope for profit in the West. On level stakes, a total outlay of $1031 ($1 win bets) returned $1024.60. This is less than a 1 per cent loss on turnover. Imagine if all the punters lost at this rate - the TAB and bookies would close down operations.
Clearly, then, these statistics formed the basis of a 'Perth only' system.
After more analysis, the following rules were devised:
Rule 1: Support only last-start city winners racing in Perth.
Rule 2: Avoid tracks rated good or worse.
Rule 3: Only bet on races of 1200m or less.
Rule 4: Eliminate races with three or more last-start city winners.
Rule 1 is the most crucial to this system and the easiest to perform simply find any last-start city winners. Rule 2 pertains to the fact that the average track rating in Perth is fast, so betting on any other track surface is probably risky.
More analysis shows that profit can be extracted by betting on short distance or sprint races, hence Rule 3. Rule 4 eliminates those races in which you may well support the winner but effectively be betting against yourself. For example, if there are three last-start city winners engaged in a race, then the winner, assuming you have it, must pay 2/1 to just break even - not a brilliant punting method. Some of the winners in this system were odds-on; need I say more?
The results of the system (excluding Rule 4) over 282 races are as follows:
PLACE
NEXT START | NO.
PLACERS | STRIKE
% |
|---|
| 1 | 66 | 23.4% |
| 2 | 50 | 17.7% |
| 3 | 28 | 9.9% |
| 4 | 21 | 7.4% |
| 5 | 28 | 9.9% |
| 6 | 19 | 6.7% |
| 7 | 16 | 5.7% |
| 8 | 11 | 3.9% |
| 9 | 12 | 4.3% |
| 10 | 11 | 3.9% |
| 11 | 8 | 2.8% |
| 12 | 5 | 1.8% |
| 13 | 3 | 1.1% |
| 14 | 2 | 0.7% |
| 15 | 1 | 0.4% |
| 16 | 1 | 0.4% |
| Average SP: 4.0/1 |
Betting $1 on each race for an outlay of $282 gave a return of $330 (profit on turnover 17 per cent). Not a bad result for a purely mechanical plan that you can easily calculate.
At 41 per cent first- and second placegetters, a field quinella appears like a fair wager as well. Try taking the last-start winner with the next five in the market as another potential source profit source. So go West and WIN!
Paul Segar is in the final stages of completing a new punting book: Australian Horse Racing: The Punter's Guide to Winning, which includes invaluable information for punters around Australia. Price $35. Available in August. Queries can be directed to Paul Segar at Pureform, phone / fax (03) 9877 0013 or email [email protected]
EDITOR'S NOTE. Contributions for this page are welcomed. They should be about some aspect of racing and betting preferably with a personalised angle to them. Length should be around 750 words. Payment is $100.
Send your submissions, with a covering letter containing details about yourself to Brian Blackwell, PO Box 36, Isle of Capri, Qld, 4217.
By Paul Segar - a Melbourne racing writer
PRACTICAL PUNTING - JUNE 1997