In the last discussion on the statistics relevant to Melbourne Clear Cut Favourites (CCF) covering the period August 1 to December 31, I expressed amazement that an actual profit eventuated if you backed the 329 horses concerned.

I also stated that although 329 was becoming a significant number of occurrences, I would be happier to see over 500. Well,  we have now passed that figure. At that stage there had been 329 CCF for 106 winners returning $329.90 and I was conservative in suggesting we wait until this latest set of figures was published to give us an opportunity to sit back and have a good think.

Here we are, then, with another set of figures to consider. The statistics show since August 1, 2008  to April 30, 2009  there have been 618 Clear Cut Favourites (CCF) for 211 winners (34.14 per cent) at Melbourne metropolitan tracks both Midweek and on Saturdays. By the time we finish this series of articles to culminate with the end of the racing season, we will have over 1,000 races and that will be a significant number.

One unit on each netted a return of 650.35 units, a profit of 32.35 units. This equates to a profit on turnover of 5.31 per cent. Now this is quite an amazing set of results because normally you would expect there to see a loss of 5 per cent and not the reverse. Is this a stellar year for the punters or what?

On the Saturday only meetings there were 297 runners for 101 winners (34 per cent) for returns of $317.50. This is a profit on turnover of 6.90 per cent.

At the Midweek/Non Saturday meetings there were 321 runners for 110 winners (34.26 per cent) for returns of $332.85 and a profit of 11.85 units or a POT of 3.69 per cent.

In my last article for Melbourne, the Midweek/Non Saturday meetings were losing 1.6 units so in this new period from January 1 there has been a turnaround of 13.45 units. The Saturday only figures have also improved from a small profit of 2.50 units to a profit of just over 20 units.

Previously the short priced runners from Odds On to $2.10 had not fared too well and this still remains a problem area for punters. With 68 runners and 30 winners (44.11 per cent) with a return of $54.85, which equates to a dismal loss on turnover of 19.33 per cent, it certainly shows there is very little value in the short priced favourites. It is not a revelation that there is a loss on the shorties but losing 19.33 per cent on turnover is very ordinary. Again, as I have mentioned many times, be aware of the small sample figures of 68 as you would not want to stake your future on such a small number of occurrences.

There was a rally from August to December for the Odds On to $3.20 range with only a small loss of 9.6 units (5.5 per cent). This time around this price range shows there were 327 runners for 134 winners (40.97 per cent) for the August to April figures, returning $342.15 which equates to 4.63 per cent profit on turnover.

However, before we get too cocky, have a look at the $3.00 to $3.20 range where there have been 93 runners for 40 winners for an amazing 43.00 per cent winners returning a sensational $123.40.

In any set of figures an aberration, which this certainly is, can distort any set of stats. However, the $3.30 and longer bracket show 291 runners for 77 winners (26.41 per cent) for returns of $308.20. So, what do we conclude, so far?

I do not want to jump the gun but a minor case is beginning to surface for only backing CCF’s that are 2/1 ($3.00) or longer in Melbourne. The sample figure of 384 runners (117 winners) returning an excellent $431.00 is starting to make me wonder if perhaps we have hit on a minimum acceptable price for any horse. There have always been arguments amongst keen punters at just where to draw the line in the discussions on value.

In my next article based around the Melbourne CCF’s I will have presented you with a series of statistics worthy of serious discussion. I wonder if the CCF’s can withstand the ravages of a Melbourne winter?

August to April 30 Melbourne

Odds Range     
Runners Winners Returns Runners Winners Returns
  Midweek Midweek Midweek Saturday Saturday Saturday
1.30 to 1.50
 4 3
 4.50
 2
 2
 3.00
1.55 to 1.70
 7
 1
 1.70
 10
 4
 6.45
1.75 to 1.80
 2
 0
 0.00
 6
 1
 1.80
1.85 to 1.95
 10
 5
 9.50
 9
 6
 11.40
2.00 to 2.10
 9
 4
 8.20
 9
 4
 8.30
2.20 to 2.40 31 10 22.30 19 8 18.10
2.50 to 2.60 29 15 38.20 17 1 2.50
2.70 to 2.80 33 13 35.20 20
 10
 27.30
2.90 13 5 14.50 4 2 5.80
3.00 to 3.20                 
43 17 52.20 50 23 71.20
3.30 5
 1
 3.30
 2
 2
 6.60
3.50 31
 7
 24.50
 29
 7
 24.50
3.60 to 3.80 27
 8
 29.60
 23
 10
 37.00
4.00 to 4.20 43
 16
 65.40
 46
 12
 49.20
4.40 2
 0
 0.00
 2
 0
 0.00
4.50 to 4.80 19
 3
 13.75
 28
 6
 27.35
5.00 to 6.50 13
 2
 10.0
 18
 3
 17.00
7.50 to 8.00 0
 0
 0.00
 3
 0
 0.00
Total 321
 110
 332.85
 297
 101
 317.50

Click here to read Part 1.
Click here to read Part 2.
Click here to read Part 3.

By Roman Kozlovski

PRACTICAL PUNTING – AUGUST 2009