A brand new, fresh approach to place betting? I think so, and I call it Golden Places. The approach provides healthy long term profits. And it will be easy to check it out for yourselves.
All this started as a parallel bet for my exotic betting when perusing my database of results and noticing the constant value of top rated horses being placed at very attractive odds, sometimes higher than the winner in black type events. This led to some research and experimentation.
Consider odds of $3, $5, $7, $9, and $11+ with a solid strike rate – yet these are place divvies from mostly fixed odds markets but also from the TAB.
Chasing the large place divvies in fixed odds markets, or prior to race time, can be more fun and profitable than chasing short priced favourites. The odds are more than double for a similar strike rate.
As I write this at Easter time, I am collecting $5 on CROSS BAR, $5 on DOWN THE WICKET, $6.50 on BENTLEY BISCUIT (was $7.25 before late scratching), $9.25 on PROPRIETOR, $6 on ZABEAT, $4 on IKE’S DREAM, $6 on GALLANT TESS etc. These are place divvies on horses that are in great form and fitness competing in Group races.
Firstly, a thorough analysis of the form of selected horses is a must.
A slight form adjustment has to be made, as we are only interested in selections coming in the first three so we can be more flexible.
Disregard anything the horse did prior to six months, no matter how good. Concentrate only on recent runs, track work, barrier trials and distance from winner, trainer and jockey combination.
Fitness and peak form always comes in clumps. Rate them accordingly depending on the strength of the field they are racing against.
Determine the chance to run a place to maintain a minimum 40 per cent strike rate as a 100 per cent chance, 75 per cent chance or 50 per cent chance.
You can adjust minimum strike rate/per cent chance according to your own scale, make it 50 per cent strike rate with 100 per cent, 75 per cent, 50 per cent chances with minimum prices of $2.50, $3.50, $5.
Determine your profit margin as 20 per cent – 33 per cent PTO. Imagination is limitless. I made it 40 per cent as it’s on par with the strike rate of the PPD Club’s HotPots system win strike rate. I found it the most effective and profitable combination on a small to moderate outlay.
Suggested staking with 40 per cent minimum strike rate:
- 40 per cent s/rate 100 per cent chance minimum price required to bet: $3.00 for the place = 12 units
- 40 per cent s/rate 75 per cent chance minimum price required to bet: $4.00 for the place = 8 units
- 40 per cent s/rate 50 per cent chance minimum price required to bet: $6.00 for the place = 5 units
If the odds are much higher than the minimum, we still bet at that level. If the price is lower = no bet.
Example 1:
In the Doncaster I secured IKE’S DREAM and BENTLEY BISCUIT both offered at $7.25 place fixed odds, both rated as 100 per cent chances of running a place 40 per cent of the time. My other selections were no value = no bet.
BENTLEY BISCUIT ran 3rd, place returning $6.50 (late scr deduction) x 12 units.
24 units invested = 78 units return
Profit = 54 units on the race
Example 2:
In the Sydney Cup I managed to secure the following odds on CROSS BAR (100 per cent chance) at $9.25 out to $13.50, ZABEAT (75 per cent chance) at $6.00, ENVOY (50 per cent chance) at $6.00. My other selections were no value = no bet.
ZABEAT ran 3rd, place returning $6.00 ($7.50 TAB) x 8 units.
25 units invested = 48 units return
Profit = 23 units on the race
Example 3:
In the Chairman’s Handicap I secured ZABEAT at $4 and CROSS BAR at $5 both as 100 per cent chances. My other selections were no value = no bet.
CROSS BAR ran 3rd, place returning $5.00 x 12 units.
24 units invested= 60 units return
Profit = 36 units on the race
Example 4:
In the Galaxy I secured CRIMSON REIGN (100 per cent chance) at $4, PROPRIETOR (75 per cent chance) at $9.25 and STRADA (100 per cent chance) at $4.50. My other selections were no value = no bet.
PROPRIETOR won, place returning $9.25 x 8 units.
32 units invested = 74 units returned
(And yes they do win sometimes at beautiful odds)
Profit = 42 units on the race
So four major races in the Easter Carnival, 10 selections that were equal or greater than the minimum price = 10 bets, four saluted with great prices. A total of 105 units invested = 260 units returned, a profit of 155 units, no sweat!
Notice that you can have more than one selection per race, but only bet when you can get the required minimum price.
Let’s say you have selected four place chances in a particular race but only two have the minimum price; only bet those two, and ignore the others. It’s not worth chasing the smaller prices – stick to that rule for long-term profits.
Betting on more than one selection means than the race strike rate can be quite high and running the chance to collect more than once in the same race.
This approach can have many variations but should always be dependent on a minimum price to bet to ensure profitability on a long-term basis.
When Futures or Final Field Markets open for the major races, excellent place prices can be secured sometimes at double figure odds. Steer away from real roughies with huge place odds that have a minuscule or no chance of running a place.
Remember: earlybird = more value. So every Thursday after lunch, I comb the fixed odds markets as they open, ready to secure value.
There can be large differences in place prices between Thursday afternoon and Saturday morning depending on the number of early “nibblers”.
Sometimes there are a few eye-openers like SHANIA DANE at $4.00 place in the Queen of the Turf, RED DAZZLER at $9.25 place in the Futurity Stakes.
Early form is available on line or there is always the fantastic Oziform online database to check a horse‘s credentials.
So while your punting counterparts are jumping all over the place at a $1.70 winner, you quietly enjoy a glass of champers on your $5+ place collect.
By Robert A
PRACTICAL PUNTING – JUNE 2006