This series is devoted to the performances of clear cut (no equal) favourites on Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan tracks.  Over the course of a year various aspects of the favourites will be covered and updated. The analysis period covers clear cut favourites in Melbourne from August 1, 2008 to December 31, 2008.

Overall, the statistics for this period show there were 329 CCF (Clear Cut Favourites: No Equal) for 106 winners, or 32.22 per cent winners, for an amazing return of $329.90. In other words, there was actually a profit, albeit a tiny one.

Now I am the first to scoff at statistics where there are minimal occurrences; however, 329 is starting to become a significant number. Personally, I prefer at least 500 as my starting point and when the next set of figures is posted covering January to the end of April we will have passed 500, thus giving us the opportunity to sit back and have a good think about how things are going.

The figures show that on Saturday-only meetings there were 166 runners for 52 winners or 31.32 per cent while at the Midweek/Non Saturday meetings there were 163 runners for 53 winners or a win percentage of 32.51 per cent. The returns for Saturday only were 168.50 units for a small profit and some quick calculations will show that the loss midweek was a mere 1.6 units. Now, don’t get excited as there’s every chance down the track the next 160 odd runners in each set will perform poorly and, all of a sudden, we could have quite a decent negative figure.

The columns show from that Odds on to $2.10 Midweek there were 19 runners for 11.8 returns, producing quite a substantial loss. For Saturdays only there were 22 runners returning  16.6 units. The very short priced favourites have been extremely dangerous. 

Naturally, these samples are far too small so if we extend our numbers and this time look at Odds On to $3.20 for the Midweekers we note 94 bets returning 77.8 units. Nothing has changed – the midweekers are still going poorly. The Saturday only runners, however, rallied and we have 79 runners collecting 85.6 units. Therefore, for both camps there were 173 runners for returns of 163.4 units, a loss of 9.6 units, which isn’t too bad at minus 5.5 per cent.

Earlier we noted that both Midweek and Saturdays only both were around a break even situation,  yet we have noted the midweek figures have been fairly ordinary from the Odds On to $3.20 range. You don’t have to be Einstein to realise a comeback was made as the prices got longer. From $3.50 and longer there were 69 runners for excellent returns of 80.9 units. Was this matched by the Saturday only runners? Unfortunately not – the 87 runners returned 72.9 units.

For the unwary there might be a temptation to launch into laying the short priced favourites on Betfair or betting on those that represent a fraction more value, depending on where in the sand you draw the line on what price represents value. Let me warn you NOW that these are dangerous thoughts  – so just wait until the next set is published.

Initially, I was going to extend this study to distance next month but I feel it is more important to update the Sydney and Melbourne overall figures first. At present there seem to be several anomalies I believe only a larger sample can “iron out”.

It is one of punting’s facts that far too many punters make decisions based on a minimal set of statistics and I do not want any readers making decisions based on a small sample.

Next month’s updated figures, which will cover January 1 to April 30, will really give us a much clearer picture of clear cut favourites in Melbourne and Sydney.

Odds Range Runners Winners Returns Runners Winners Returns
  Midweek Midweek Midweek Saturday Saturday Saturday
1.3 to 1.5
3 2
3.0
2
2
3.0
1.55 to 1.7
5
1
1.7
5
1
1.7
1.8 to 1.9
6
3
5.7
9
3
5.6
2.0 to 2.1
5
2
4.1
6
3
6.3
2.2 to 2.3
16
4
9.0
9
4
9.1
2.5 to 2.6 14 7 18.0 6 0 0.0
2.7 to 2.8 17 5 11.2 10 5 13.6
2.9 to 3.0 7 0 0.0 3 0 2.9
3.0 to 3.2 21 9 27.8 29
14
43.4
3.5 to 3.7 28 7 25.1 29 11 39.7
4.0 to 4.2 22 9 36.6 25 3 12.4
4.5 to 4.8 9
2
9.2
14
3
13.8
5.0 to 6.5 10
2
10.0
19
3
17.0
Total 163
53
161.4
166
52
168.5
Click here to read Part 1.

By Roman Kozlovski


PRACTICAL PUNTING – JUNE 2009